Bull/Bear Market
Nadeem, I have been reading your work over the last couple of years, and I have to acknowledge your work is indeed very good. Over paid Economists the world over are raking the moolah with forecasts that are a great deal away from the line of best fit, but I dont blame them at all, given that academics are unwilling to admit that external events (except acts of god and other catastrophes) do not move markets. Bernanke probably does (or atleast the crowd believes so), but in 4 weeks, all of his genius work and therefore, the stock market's post QE2 gains have been completely wiped out in 1/10th (maybe even lesser) of the time. I remember how he adorned the cover page of TIME as man of the year, and I am a great believer in Robert Prechter's Magazine cover extreme. Since then it has been downhill for him and the Fed. Its not the Fed's business to support stock markets, and if it is, they should probably put it on record so people know. History is replete with examples of the market rendering "interventions" absolutely impotent. The latest is the USDJPY episode. You might help create a bounce in the larger scheme of things, only for the worse to snowball into something that no regulator can handle. In this background, let us make an effort to acknowledge different opinions rather than tearing somebody else's arguments to shreds (Read: Mish). The one thing about Robert Prechter that is particularly likeable is that he has never shied away from accepting his mistake. I follow him very closely, and whatever he did recommend, he's always had stops. Always. Here again, I hope he is wrong with his dow 1k forecast, but there is nothing that the market can't do, and am sure with your experience, you know that a lot better than I do. On a final note, am not sure if you follow David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff and he's not scared to be a bear. In a bear market, you just cannot be a bull. The great thing about a good technical analyst is to swap sides when the trend turns, and not just be bullish because a bull gets called to studios more often. Having said that, keep up the good work.
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