Crash Conditions

Well, first my heart and prayers go out to the people in Japan. I wish them well as they struggle with rebuilding their country.

As you probably know, the market reacted badly to the news in Japan. The overnight futures are way down.

What to do?

It is too late to panic. We are caught in the downdraft like most of the planet. Also, the trend has changed from up to down. The market is always a risky place. Q: Who could have predicted a 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami followed by a possible meltdown at multiple nuclear reactors? Not me.

Anyway, the point here is that the globe is in panic mode. These times are the worst times to sell in hindsight. Even if the trend is down, the best time to sell would be on a bounce. That would be the 13-day moving average or 1280ish. It is a judgment call but the market needs to regain my trust. Remember how skittish I was back in November and December about the market's performance? It was because of memories of crashes. They happen quickly which is why it pays to be hypersensitive during the good times.

So, let's watch today and the rest of the week play itself out. I'm keeping an eye on the 13-day moving average. When we hit it, it will be time to go for a while.

Wink

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