100% G Fund - Happy Holidays!

Happy Holidays!

I was 100% in the C Fund since 1205 on the S&P 500 Index.
We are now entering a 42-day down cycle, if past experience is any guide.
I moved 100% into the G Fund this morning.
2011 was a disappointing year for many funds and institutions. There was alot of up and down but the year began @ 1257 and here we are again @ 1258 as I write.

Later,

Wink

Terry's Model Portfolio - October 82 SPY Put

Trade Execution - Buy 20 October 82 Puts on SPY @ 0.25.
Time - 7:15 a.m.
Value of Trade - $500.00
Rationale - Thursday/Friday/Monday Crash Pattern noted by Art Cashin and Alexander Elder, Come Into My Trading Room: A Guide to Trading, page 197.

More Weekend Reflections from Market Oracle UK

Ian Gordon, economic forecaster and chair of the Longwave Group: The majority of gold investors are there because they can see the impending collapse of paper money, but some investors, including many hedge funds, are in the gold market simply because they are trend-followers. In ugly markets, such as the one now unfolding, these trend-followers sell their gold. During the stock bear market, which commenced in October 2007, the price of gold continued to rise into March 2008, even though the Dow had lost about 17.5% from October 2007 to March 2008. But after March, gold sold off into October 2008, losing about 35% of its value. We feel that something similar could happen to gold, this time, in the wake of falling stock prices. As for silver, prices fell by 60% between March 2008 and October 2008. A 35% drop from current prices would see the price of gold fall to something like $1,200/oz. As for the stock market, we are extremely bearish and believe that in the Elliott Wave market cycles, we are entering the third downswing, which should take the Dow Jones Industrial Average well below the March 2009 low of 6,470; perhaps 4,500 will be the target by September 2012.

Weekend Reflections - Market Oracle UK Post

Bull/Bear Market
Nadeem, I have been reading your work over the last couple of years, and I have to acknowledge your work is indeed very good. Over paid Economists the world over are raking the moolah with forecasts that are a great deal away from the line of best fit, but I dont blame them at all, given that academics are unwilling to admit that external events (except acts of god and other catastrophes) do not move markets. Bernanke probably does (or atleast the crowd believes so), but in 4 weeks, all of his genius work and therefore, the stock market's post QE2 gains have been completely wiped out in 1/10th (maybe even lesser) of the time. I remember how he adorned the cover page of TIME as man of the year, and I am a great believer in Robert Prechter's Magazine cover extreme. Since then it has been downhill for him and the Fed. Its not the Fed's business to support stock markets, and if it is, they should probably put it on record so people know. History is replete with examples of the market rendering "interventions" absolutely impotent. The latest is the USDJPY episode. You might help create a bounce in the larger scheme of things, only for the worse to snowball into something that no regulator can handle. In this background, let us make an effort to acknowledge different opinions rather than tearing somebody else's arguments to shreds (Read: Mish). The one thing about Robert Prechter that is particularly likeable is that he has never shied away from accepting his mistake. I follow him very closely, and whatever he did recommend, he's always had stops. Always. Here again, I hope he is wrong with his dow 1k forecast, but there is nothing that the market can't do, and am sure with your experience, you know that a lot better than I do. On a final note, am not sure if you follow David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff and he's not scared to be a bear. In a bear market, you just cannot be a bull. The great thing about a good technical analyst is to swap sides when the trend turns, and not just be bullish because a bull gets called to studios more often. Having said that, keep up the good work.

Submitted by a guest commentator

Now is a Good Time to Get Out of the Market

Today's action confirms the Stock Trader's Almanac pattern; i,e. the market should be weak into August 30, a rally possibly into September 4, and a really shocking drop into October/November.

I'm already out, so I'm not stressing anymore.

But the downtrend on the weekly chart is strong. A close below 1130 will seal the deal for more downside next week. My target on the S&P 500 Index (and it is hard to believe) is about 970. It could happen either by August 30 or by October/November.

Anyway, now is a good time to get out of the market. The move down is very strong. Bounces are being sold with vigor.

Your standing on the sidelines writer,

Wink

Now is a

100% in the G Fund - The Bounce Has Died

The bounce has died. I am 100% in the G Fund. We hit the 13-day moving average and then dived down. It is time to go.
The market has changed. Support has been breached @ 1172. Support shouldn't be breached if we are heading up. Also, we are now below the 200-day moving average on a weekly chart. Time to go and step aside. I found myself hoping. Hope is not a plan.

Breaching 1172 support was a trigger. Breaching the 200-day moving average on a weekly chart was a trigger.

October/November should offer better entry opportunities. It's just not a good market environment. Plus, there is less stress to just step aside and watch from the sidelines.