The market is going up, not down.
The most bullish thing a market can do is go up when it should go down. Today should have been a Short Sell Day. On a Short Sell Day, the day should end low. The market's decline for the day stopped @ 1320. Also, the first of the month has been bullish as of late. March 1 should be an up day to reflect a new infusion of cash from the public. Finally, a bull flag pattern on a 15-minute chart is about to resolve upwards.
For these reasons, I am 100% in the C Fund as of 1325 on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.
Don't fight the trend.
Standard Disclaimers
1. This blog is for educational purposes only.
2. None of the individuals associated with the Las Vegas TSP Investment Club are registered financial advisors.
3. This blog is not an offer to the public to buy or sell any stocks, options, commodities or futures.
4. You are encouraged to do your own due diligence and to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
5. This blog cannot take responsibility for the results of your investment and trading decisions.
Monday, February 28, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
The Next Two Days
We are approaching the turn of the month, the transition between February and March. This is an important and significant time. Consider these two observations:
1. The Three-Day Method suggests that market action is driven by powerful forces. Sometimes the market is driven down in order to create a buying opportunity. Sometimes the market is driven up in order to create a selling opportunity. The general idea is that there are roughly three types of days-- a Buy Day, a Sell Day, a Sell Short Day. A Buy Day is when the low of the day occurs early in the day. The market closes at its high. A Sell Day follows a Buy Day. The low of the day occurs early and the high of the day occurs late in the day. Powerful forces use this day to sell securities and contracts acquired the day before, i.e. the Buy Day. Finally, the Sell Short Day is the next day. The high of the day is made at the open or shortly after the open. The market then drops and closes at the low of the day.
If you accept this picture, then Thursday's low of 1294 on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index meant that Thursday was a Buy Day. This was a day to buy as a short-term trader. Friday was a Sell Day. Notice how the market opened at the low @ 1307 and continued up throughout the day until hitting a high of 1320 and closing @ 1319. Ideally, powerful forces that purchased S&P futures on Thursday were using Friday to sell into strength at higher prices.
So, Monday should be a Sell Short Day. This would be a selling opportunity where the market is driven up at the open and then sells off throughout the day. Look for an open around 1320, Friday's high, and then for the market to sell off throughout the day.
2. Tuesday, March 1, is the first day of the month. For the past few months, the first day of the month has been characterized by buying pressure. I would think that Monday should also be a Buy Day since it follows a Sell Short Day, Monday. If March 1 is an up day in the market, monitor the volume. If the volume is extremely low, then the rest of the week would be down.
Have a great day!
Wink
Standard Disclaimers
1. This blog is for educational purposes only.
2. None of the individuals associated with the Las Vegas TSP Investment Club are registered financial advisors.
3. This blog is not an offer to the public to buy or sell any stocks, options, commodities or futures.
4. You are encouraged to do your own due diligence and to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
5. This blog cannot take responsibility for the results of your investment and trading decisions.
1. The Three-Day Method suggests that market action is driven by powerful forces. Sometimes the market is driven down in order to create a buying opportunity. Sometimes the market is driven up in order to create a selling opportunity. The general idea is that there are roughly three types of days-- a Buy Day, a Sell Day, a Sell Short Day. A Buy Day is when the low of the day occurs early in the day. The market closes at its high. A Sell Day follows a Buy Day. The low of the day occurs early and the high of the day occurs late in the day. Powerful forces use this day to sell securities and contracts acquired the day before, i.e. the Buy Day. Finally, the Sell Short Day is the next day. The high of the day is made at the open or shortly after the open. The market then drops and closes at the low of the day.
If you accept this picture, then Thursday's low of 1294 on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index meant that Thursday was a Buy Day. This was a day to buy as a short-term trader. Friday was a Sell Day. Notice how the market opened at the low @ 1307 and continued up throughout the day until hitting a high of 1320 and closing @ 1319. Ideally, powerful forces that purchased S&P futures on Thursday were using Friday to sell into strength at higher prices.
So, Monday should be a Sell Short Day. This would be a selling opportunity where the market is driven up at the open and then sells off throughout the day. Look for an open around 1320, Friday's high, and then for the market to sell off throughout the day.
2. Tuesday, March 1, is the first day of the month. For the past few months, the first day of the month has been characterized by buying pressure. I would think that Monday should also be a Buy Day since it follows a Sell Short Day, Monday. If March 1 is an up day in the market, monitor the volume. If the volume is extremely low, then the rest of the week would be down.
Have a great day!
Wink
Standard Disclaimers
1. This blog is for educational purposes only.
2. None of the individuals associated with the Las Vegas TSP Investment Club are registered financial advisors.
3. This blog is not an offer to the public to buy or sell any stocks, options, commodities or futures.
4. You are encouraged to do your own due diligence and to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
5. This blog cannot take responsibility for the results of your investment and trading decisions.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Market Conditions - Bounce on Low Volume
Today, we had a bounce on low volume in the market. Usually, sustainable bounces are supported by higher volume, not lower volume. This pattern is consistent with a bounce that will not hold. I think we will see the S&P 500 Index bounce through March 1 and up to around 1327ish. That would be a good level for shorting the Index if one were so inclined.
Otherwise, watch what happens after March 1, the first of the month. Since August, the first of the month has been followed by a burst of upward momentum. This time might be different. Watch the volume on Monday and Tuesday since price follows volume.
Later.
Wink
Standard Disclaimers
1. This blog is for educational purposes only.
2. None of the individuals associated with the Las Vegas TSP Investment Club are registered financial advisors.
3. This blog is not an offer to the public to buy or sell any stocks, options, commodities or futures.
4. You are encouraged to do your own due diligence and to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
5. This blog cannot take responsibility for the results of your investment and trading decisions.
Otherwise, watch what happens after March 1, the first of the month. Since August, the first of the month has been followed by a burst of upward momentum. This time might be different. Watch the volume on Monday and Tuesday since price follows volume.
Later.
Wink
Standard Disclaimers
1. This blog is for educational purposes only.
2. None of the individuals associated with the Las Vegas TSP Investment Club are registered financial advisors.
3. This blog is not an offer to the public to buy or sell any stocks, options, commodities or futures.
4. You are encouraged to do your own due diligence and to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
5. This blog cannot take responsibility for the results of your investment and trading decisions.
Thursday, February 24, 2011
I'm Back
The past month has been a busy time for me in the day job. Barbara gave me a kind phone call to catch up and to remind me that I was missed in blog land. I'm not sure what happened in February but my work load seems to have picked up. So, I apologize to my readers for dropping off the radar for a bit.
I will have more to say over the coming weeks.
From what I can tell, the market seems to have made a short-term top on Friday, February 18, 2011 @1344. The breakaway gap down on Tuesday morning confirmed the sharp correction that we are currently experiencing. Now is the time to watch and wait for a high probability setup. Today, the low was 1294 on the S&P 500 Index. This level is important for the next few days. Should it break, expect a decline over 4 or so days to 1227.
That would be a buy point, 1227.
I'm still expecting a significant low in late May but, for now, watch what happens @ 1227.
Later,
Wink
Standard Disclaimers
1. This blog is for educational purposes only.
2. None of the individuals associated with the Las Vegas TSP Investment Club are registered financial advisors.
3. This blog is not an offer to the public to buy or sell any stocks, options, commodities or futures.
4. You are encouraged to do your own due diligence and to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
5. This blog cannot take responsibility for the results of your investment and trading decisions.
I will have more to say over the coming weeks.
From what I can tell, the market seems to have made a short-term top on Friday, February 18, 2011 @1344. The breakaway gap down on Tuesday morning confirmed the sharp correction that we are currently experiencing. Now is the time to watch and wait for a high probability setup. Today, the low was 1294 on the S&P 500 Index. This level is important for the next few days. Should it break, expect a decline over 4 or so days to 1227.
That would be a buy point, 1227.
I'm still expecting a significant low in late May but, for now, watch what happens @ 1227.
Later,
Wink
Standard Disclaimers
1. This blog is for educational purposes only.
2. None of the individuals associated with the Las Vegas TSP Investment Club are registered financial advisors.
3. This blog is not an offer to the public to buy or sell any stocks, options, commodities or futures.
4. You are encouraged to do your own due diligence and to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.
5. This blog cannot take responsibility for the results of your investment and trading decisions.
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